Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chaves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Chaves are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Amarante are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Chaves hold a 4.2-point power-rating edge (49.5 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Chaves holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Chaves
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
12.2%
Chaves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80