Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Charlton are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Derby are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 44.9 against 45.1. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 20.9% in the Championship, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 22% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
20.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40