GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 5/16/2026, 8:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2

Highconfidence

CF Montreal are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Chicago Fire are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWD), averaging 2.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold a 20.8-point power-rating edge (37.8 v 58.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 59.3% in the Major League Soccer, while Chicago Fire holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Chicago Fire

Probability

59.3%

Model confidence

59.3%

Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CF MontrealDWWLW

GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Chicago FireWLLWD

GF 14 · GA 10 · avg 2.80/2.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
CF MontrealChicago Fire
44.4Attack62.7
35.2Defence54.9
29.6Form56.9
37.8Power58.6
1.22xG2.39
View match centre →