Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Cerrito are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while La Luz are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LWDDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Cerrito hold a 5.5-point power-rating edge (52.9 v 47.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.9% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20