Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celtic · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Celtic are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLDWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while AC Milan are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Celtic hold a 31.6-point power-rating edge (77.6 v 46.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Celtic holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 77% BTTS chance and 84% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celtic
Probability
50.9%
Model confidence
50.9%
Celtic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60