Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shkendija · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Celje are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Shkendija are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Shkendija hold a 20.2-point power-rating edge (54.0 v 74.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.4% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Shkendija holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Shkendija
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Shkendija has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00