Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cukaricki · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Celje are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Cukaricki are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Celje hold a 3.8-point power-rating edge (54.0 v 50.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Cukaricki holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 72% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cukaricki
Probability
35.6%
Model confidence
35.6%
Cukaricki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00