Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Ceara are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Cuiaba are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Cuiaba hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (47.3 v 49.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 33.6% in the Serie B, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 19% BTTS chance and 10% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
33.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40