Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Caxias are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Confiança are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Caxias hold a 15.8-point power-rating edge (55.1 v 39.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.5% in the Serie C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 15% BTTS chance and 10% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40