Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Catanzaro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Catanzaro are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Sudtirol are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (WDDDD), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Sudtirol hold a 2.7-point power-rating edge (42.7 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.1% in the Coppa Italia, while Catanzaro holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Catanzaro
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
13.1%
Catanzaro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 2 · GA 1 · avg 0.40/0.20