Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Catanzaro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Catanzaro are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Giugliano are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Catanzaro hold a 34.6-point power-rating edge (49.9 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.8% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Catanzaro holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 72% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Catanzaro
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Catanzaro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00