Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Cascavel are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Joinville are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 52.7 against 54.2. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.7% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 16% BTTS chance and 8% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60