Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Casa Pia are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDDW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Benfica are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 3.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Benfica hold a 2.7-point power-rating edge (42.7 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.1% in the Primeira Liga, while Benfica holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
14.1%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20