Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Carlisle are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Worthing are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Worthing hold a 56.7-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.6% in the National League, while Carlisle holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Carlisle
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60