Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Capital are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Manaus FC are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Manaus FC hold a 3.0-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 48.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.0% in the Copa Do Brasil, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20