Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ipswich · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-2
Capalaba are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Ipswich are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Ipswich hold a 30.4-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 54.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.4% in the Queensland Premier League, while Ipswich holds the strongest overall chance at 75% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ipswich
Probability
75.5%
Model confidence
10.4%
Ipswich has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60