Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Caldense are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDD), averaging 0.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while CAP are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 0 passed 2.5 goals, and CAP hold an 8.3-point power-rating edge (34.4 v 42.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 25.4% in the Mineiro - 2, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
25.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.20/0.80
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60