Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caldas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Caldas are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Academica are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Caldas hold a 20.1-point power-rating edge (51.4 v 31.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Caldas holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Caldas
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Caldas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00