Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arezzo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cagliari are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Arezzo are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Arezzo hold a 33.5-point power-rating edge (55.1 v 88.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.9% in the Coppa Italia, while Arezzo holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arezzo
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
11.9%
Arezzo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60