GGOALVIO

Wales · Premier League · 8/7/2026, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Caernarfon Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Caernarfon Town are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Penybont are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Penybont hold an 11.8-point power-rating edge (53.0 v 64.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.1% in the Premier League, while Caernarfon Town holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Caernarfon Town

Probability

36.1%

Model confidence

36.1%

Caernarfon Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Caernarfon TownWLLWW

GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
PenybontDLLWW

GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80

BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
Caernarfon TownPenybont
50.0Attack33.3
50.0Defence83.3
50.0Form66.7
53.0Power64.8
1.42xG1.34
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