GGOALVIO

Uruguay · Segunda División · 3/14/2026, 12:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Oriental · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

CA River Plate are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Oriental are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Oriental hold a 4.7-point power-rating edge (47.5 v 52.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.9% in the Segunda División, while Oriental holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Oriental

Probability

36.9%

Model confidence

36.9%

Oriental has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CA River PlateDWDLL

GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
OrientalWDWDL

GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CA River PlateOriental
45.6Attack41.3
45.6Defence63.5
43.9Form46.0
47.5Power52.1
1.06xG1.24
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