Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piratas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
CA La Paz are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Piratas are 2W-1D-0L in their last 3 (WWD), averaging 1.33 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 8 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Piratas hold a 27.0-point power-rating edge (47.7 v 74.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.7% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Piratas holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Piratas
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
12.7%
Piratas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 4 · GA 0 · avg 1.33/0.00