Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
12%
MediumconfidenceBuxton are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Hereford are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Buxton hold a 56.7-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the National League - North, favouring a draw with 12.3% confidence, a 53% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
25.7%
Model confidence
12.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BuxtonLWWWD
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
HerefordDWWLD
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
BuxtonHereford
66.7Attack33.3
66.7Defence33.3
100.0Form0.0
80.3Power23.7
1.79xG0.99