Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bury · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Bury are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Rylands are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Bury hold a 5.5-point power-rating edge (64.8 v 59.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.7% in the Non League Premier - Northern, while Bury holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bury
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
13.7%
Bury has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60