Burton Albionvs
Derby
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 8/1/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burton Albion · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Burton Albion are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLLDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Derby are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Burton Albion hold a 23.7-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 44.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.4% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Burton Albion holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 72% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Burton Albion
Probability
59.5%
Model confidence
9.4%
Burton Albion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60