Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burnley · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Burnley are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while West Ham are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Burnley hold a 20.6-point power-rating edge (70.6 v 50.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.6% in the Championship, while Burnley holds the strongest overall chance at 60% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Burnley
Probability
59.7%
Model confidence
16.6%
Burnley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60