Burnleyvs
Notts County
COMPLETEDEngland · League Cup · 8/8/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burnley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Burnley are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Notts County are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Burnley hold a 46.1-point power-rating edge (61.5 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.7% in the League Cup, while Burnley holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Burnley
Probability
56.9%
Model confidence
11.7%
Burnley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40