Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burnley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Burnley are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Espanyol are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Espanyol hold a 4.9-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 50.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Burnley holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Burnley
Probability
36.1%
Model confidence
36.1%
Burnley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60