Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burgan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Burgan are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Shamiya are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Burgan hold a 17.1-point power-rating edge (38.1 v 21.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.2% in the Division 1, while Burgan holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Burgan
Probability
64.6%
Model confidence
11.2%
Burgan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60