Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Brighton are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Bologna are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Brighton hold a 13.5-point power-rating edge (79.9 v 66.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Brighton holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 71% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Brighton
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
9.1%
Brighton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00