Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Boulogne · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Boulogne are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Nancy are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Boulogne hold a 5.6-point power-rating edge (47.8 v 42.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.3% in the Ligue 2, while Boulogne holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Boulogne
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
13.3%
Boulogne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00