GGOALVIO

Bulgaria · First League · 8/10/2026, 6:15:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Spartak Varna · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Botev Plovdiv are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Spartak Varna are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Spartak Varna hold a 23.6-point power-rating edge (51.1 v 74.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.2% in the First League, while Spartak Varna holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Spartak Varna

Probability

42.6%

Model confidence

14.2%

Spartak Varna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Botev PlovdivWLDLW

GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Spartak VarnaWWDWW

GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Botev PlovdivSpartak Varna
44.4Attack66.7
55.6Defence77.8
44.4Form77.8
51.1Power74.7
1.03xG1.35
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