Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Bolívar are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Marítimo are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Marítimo hold a 5.6-point power-rating edge (50.9 v 56.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 29.6% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 23% BTTS chance and 13% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
29.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60