Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Bolton are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Preston are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 2.4-point power-rating edge (50.0 v 47.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.8% in the Championship, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
13.8%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00