Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Bolton are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while NAC Breda are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 14.4-point power-rating edge (58.1 v 43.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80