Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BOA · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
BOA are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLW), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Caldense are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and BOA hold an 18.3-point power-rating edge (52.7 v 34.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.5% in the Mineiro - 2, while BOA holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 24% BTTS chance and 20% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
BOA
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
BOA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.20/1.00