Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Blumenau are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while São Luiz are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Blumenau hold a 9.3-point power-rating edge (60.1 v 50.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.0% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60