Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BKMA · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
BKMA are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Ararat are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and BKMA hold a 9.8-point power-rating edge (26.2 v 16.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.2% in the Premier League, while BKMA holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
BKMA
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
12.2%
BKMA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80