Birmingham Legionvs
Las Vegas Lights
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 6/14/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Birmingham Legion are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Las Vegas Lights are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Las Vegas Lights hold a 5.6-point power-rating edge (45.0 v 50.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.6% in the USL Championship, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20