Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BFA · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
BFA are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 3.00 conceded, while Jonava are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and BFA hold a 5.9-point power-rating edge (52.3 v 46.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.7% in the 1 Lyga, while BFA holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
BFA
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
13.7%
BFA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 15 · avg 1.40/3.00
GF 1 · GA 11 · avg 0.20/2.20