Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica B · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Benfica B are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Mérida AD are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WDLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Benfica B hold a 24.5-point power-rating edge (49.1 v 24.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.4% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Benfica B holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Benfica B
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Benfica B has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60