Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bars · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Bars are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Ilbirs are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDDDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Bars hold a 23.6-point power-rating edge (64.4 v 40.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.1% in the Premier League, while Bars holds the strongest overall chance at 74% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bars
Probability
74.4%
Model confidence
9.1%
Bars has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80