Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
10%
MediumconfidenceBars are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDLWW), averaging 3.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Alga are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Alga hold a 5.7-point power-rating edge (64.4 v 70.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Premier League, favouring a draw with 10.1% confidence, a 69% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
24.1%
Model confidence
10.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarsDDLWW
GF 17 · GA 11 · avg 3.40/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
AlgaDWDWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
BarsAlga
87.0Attack64.8
46.3Defence68.5
63.0Form72.2
64.4Power70.0
1.59xG1.95