Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Barra are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLW), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Maranhão are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Maranhão hold a 5.4-point power-rating edge (43.6 v 49.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.4% in the Serie C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 24% BTTS chance and 14% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 7 · avg 0.20/1.40
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60