Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Barra are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Caxias are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Caxias hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (43.6 v 55.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.0% in the Serie C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 23% BTTS chance and 14% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00