Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lincoln · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Barnsley are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Lincoln are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lincoln hold a 22.1-point power-rating edge (55.7 v 77.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.3% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lincoln holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lincoln
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
10.3%
Lincoln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80