Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Bahia are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while O'Higgins are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Bahia hold a 3.7-point power-rating edge (54.0 v 50.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 25% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80