GGOALVIO

Brazil · Serie A · 4/1/2026, 11:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Bahia are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Atletico Paranaense are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Atletico Paranaense hold a 6.4-point power-rating edge (53.6 v 60.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.9% in the Serie A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

38.9%

Model confidence

38.9%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

BahiaLWWDW

GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Atletico ParanaenseWWWLD

GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BahiaAtletico Paranaense
46.4Attack44.9
59.4Defence71.0
49.3Form59.4
53.6Power60.0
0.84xG1.02
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