Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ayr Utd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Ayr Utd are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Dumbarton are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Ayr Utd hold a 45.5-point power-rating edge (87.9 v 42.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Ayr Utd holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ayr Utd
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Ayr Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60