Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ayr Utd · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Ayr Utd are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Arbroath are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Ayr Utd hold a 36.7-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 31.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.7% in the Championship, while Ayr Utd holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ayr Utd
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Ayr Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60